NATO’s New Normal: Implications for Private Capital and Allied Deterrence

By Benedetta Berti, PhD, Secretary General, NATO Parliamentary Assembly, and Council Member, Council on Global Competition and Innovation – CGCI

NATO’s latest  strategy (the 2022 ‘’Strategic Concept”) identifies “strategic competition, pervasive instability and recurrent shocks” as the defining features of the  Alliance’s strategic environment. It stresses that NATO must prepare for a time of “non-peace”, permanent emergency and “volatility by design.”

That assessment remains valid in 2026. Simultaneous conflicts from Ukraine to the Middle East underscore a worrisome lowering of the threshold for the use of armed force.  They also reinforce the reality that the impact of regional shocks in key theatres of strategic competition, from the Euro-Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific, is unlikely to remain contained.

At the same time, we see a continued “weaponization of everything”: state and non-state actors deliberately employ both kinetic and non-kinetic tools—from energy blackmail to economic coercion, and from sabotage of critical infrastructure to persistent cyber-attacks—as instruments of strategic competition.

NATO’s Adaptation

Against this backdrop, NATO has been undergoing a profound shift to ensure the Alliance remains effective at a time when credible deterrence and defense are once again central to Allied security.

NATO’s first priority has been to rebuild a viable military instrument of powerafter decades in which most Allies underspent and under-invested in defense, particularly in Europe. Concretely, this means investing more, with NATO countries aiming to spend 5% of GDP on defense by 2035:  3.5% of GDP on core defense expenditures and an additional 1.5% on investments in resilience writ large. Increased defense spending is intended to restore meaningful Allied defense production capacity across the Atlantic. A strong and innovative defense industrial base, capable of out-producing and out-innovating potential adversaries and competitors, is now understood as an essential component of effective deterrence.

Retaining that effectiveness in a world of simultaneous cross-theaters threats and multiple near-peer competitors requires NATO to rebalance Allied contributions to European security. In practice, this means ensuring that European NATO countries and Canada progressively assume primary responsibility for the conventional deterrence and defense of Europe. This process of “burden-shifting” is necessary not only to ensure the Alliance’s operational effectiveness, but also to maintain political cohesion and preserve a strong transatlantic bond between Europe and North America.

Deterrence and defense at a time of geopolitical competition, however, cannot rest solely on strong militaries. NATO and its member states have therefore recognized the need to build a whole-of-society culture of defense and preparedness. This requires strengthening the resilience of the societal and economic enablers of defense—the institutions, industries, infrastructure, and assets on which effective defense relies. From civilian satellites to 5G networks, and from transportation infrastructure to defense-critical supply chains, credible deterrence depends on mitigating vulnerabilities and strategic dependencies. It equally depends on the ability of defense-critical sectors to withstand hybrid attacks and continue operating effectively in times of crisis, conflict or prolonged disruption.

Implications for Investors

These shifts in the strategic environment, and NATO’s adaptation to this “new normal” have direct implications for private capital and investor communities in NATO countries and beyond.

Persistent geopolitical competition and instability mean it is no longer possible to neatly compartmentalize economic and national security policy. “Security by design” will increasingly have to be priced into capital allocation decisions, particularly in sectors like energy infrastructure, critical technologies, and defense‑adjacent capabilities. Geopolitics and geoeconomics will continue to shape market dynamics, and investors will have to bring geopolitical analysis into the boardroom to make robust, long-term investment choices.

At the same time, the push to strengthen investment in defense and security across the NATO Alliance also brings significant opportunity. The “defense dividend” can generate tangible opportunities for economic growth and re-industrialization. It can accelerate innovation, enhance competitiveness, and support high-quality job creation. In the coming years, there will be significant opportunities for the private sector to both contribute to and benefit from national-security investments in areas like critical infrastructure, defense-critical supply chains, and the expansion of the defense industrial base.

There will be a first-mover advantage for investors who deliberately position themselves at the forefront of de‑risking investment in critical infrastructure, supporting the development of defense-critical dual‑use technologies, and financing sustaining defense industrial expansion. In this context, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly and institutions such as the Council on Global Competition and Innovation – CGCI help ensure that the political will, policy instruments, and private‑sector engagement needed to underpin Allied deterrence and resilience are not only articulated, but implemented and sustained over time.

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Dr Benedetta Berti

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Glen Dodson

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David Ulevitch

General Partner, Andreessen Horowitz

David Ulevitch is an entrepreneur and investor. As a General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz, he leads the firm’s American Dynamism practice, which focuses on investing in companies advancing American interests — including supporting builders in areas such as defense, national security, public safety, nuclear and aerospace. David sits on the boards of Alloy Automation, Anduril, AnyRoad, Charthop, Firstbase, Flock Safety, Orderful, Rewatch, Skydio, Superhuman, Supermove, Vitally, and WorkBoard. David has written extensively on the role of technology in advancing American interests, including how nuclear technology can untether our military, the future of public safety and how the U.S. can rewire the Pentagon for a new era. David was previously the founder and CEO of OpenDNS, a cloud-delivered security service that was acquired by Cisco in 2015 for $635 million. While at Cisco, David was Senior Vice President and General Manager of Cisco Security — a $2.4 billion annual revenue business with more than 5,000 team members — where he oversaw the company’s global cybersecurity strategy, product portfolio, and business. Prior to OpenDNS, David founded EveryDNS, an authoritative DNS service, and grew it into the world’s largest free DNS service. He sold it to Dyn (now Oracle) in 2010.

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John M. B. O'Connor

John M. B. O’Connor

Chairman and CEO, J.H. Whitney Investment Management

John M. B. O’Connor is CEO of J.H. Whitney Investment Management, LLC. Previously, Mr. O’Connor was Chairman of JP Morgan Alternative Asset Management. Mr. O’Connor is also CEO of Whitney Strategic Services and Whitney Data Services. Mr. O’Connor serves on the Board of Directors of numerous companies including Oceus Networks, LLC., Sequoia Holdings, Inc., and Boon Logic, Inc.

Mr. O’Connor is a Senior Fellow at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point where he lectures on the Economics of National Security. He served as a member of the U.S. Department of War Business Board from 2005 to 2021 and as a Civilian Aide to the Secretary of the Army for New York from 2014 to 2019. He is a recipient of the Secretary of Defense Medal for Distinguished Public Service, the Air Force Distinguished Public Service Award and the Department of the Navy Distinguished Civilian Service Award. Mr. O’Connor earned a bachelor’s degree in economics from Tulane University and a Master’s in Business Administration degree from Columbia University Graduate School of Business.

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Sherif Nahas

Sherif Nahas

Director of Private Equity, Ford Foundation

Sherif works at The Ford Foundation, where he manages approximately $7 billion in private investments, including venture capital, private equity, real estate, and natural resources. He previously managed private investments for the University of Virginia endowment, and before that worked at BankBoston and Sand Hill Capital. Sherif started his career as an engineer and product strategist at The Ford Motor Company. He graduated from the University of Virginia with a B.S. and M.E in Aerospace Engineering, and received an M.B.A. from the University of Michigan.

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Byron Loflin

Byron Loflin

Global Head of Board Advisory & Nasdaq Center for Board Excellence, Nasdaq

Byron Loflin is the Global Head of Board Advisory at Nasdaq where he leads the governance team in driving board and governance effectiveness. Byron founded the Center for Board Excellence (CBE) in 2010 and was CEO until it was acquired by Nasdaq in 2019.

Prior to CBE, Byron was the CEO and president for two private companies between 1992-2009. Along with speaking on and teaching corporate governance effectiveness, Byron is a graduate of James Madison University (BA) and Harvard Business School (OPM) and several HBS Executive Education Certificates including Havard’s Board Effectiveness program.

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Gen. David Stilwell

General David Stilwell

Ret. General USAF; Fmr Assistant Secretary of State (Asia)

Brig Gen (Ret) David Stilwell is the Fox Fellow for Future Pacing Threats at the U.S. Air Force Academy’s Institute for Future Conflict. In this role, he educates cadets and faculty on the growing military threat presented by the People’s Republic of China (PRC), including its use of political and information warfare to undermine democracies. His teachings help prepare future officers for the challenges they will face immediately after commissioning. Stilwell most recently served as the Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of EastAsian and Pacific Affairs from 2019 to 2021. Before that, he served in the U.S.Air Force for 35 years. Stilwell enlisted as a Korean linguist in 1980, served as a fighter pilot and commander for 25 years, and was later the Defense Attaché in Beijing. He retired in 2015 as the Asia advisor to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He speaks Korean, Chinese, and some Japanese.
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Adam Segal

Ira A. Lipman Chair in Emerging Technologies and National Security, and Director of the Digital and Cyberspace Policy program, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Adam Segal is the Ira A. Lipman chair in emerging technologies and national security and director of the Digital and Cyberspace Policy program at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). An expert on security issues, technology development, and Chinese domestic and foreign policy, Segal was the project director for the CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force reports Confronting Reality in Cyberspace, Innovation and National Security, Defending an Open, Global, Secure, and Resilient Internet, and Chinese Military Power. His book The Hacked World Order: How Nations Fight, Trade, Maneuver, and Manipulate in the Digital Age (PublicAffairs, 2016) describes the increasingly contentious geopolitics of cyberspace. His work has appeared in the Financial Times, the New York Times, Foreign Policy, the Wall Street Journal, and Foreign Affairs, among others. From April 2023 to June 2024, Segal was a senior advisor in the State Department’s Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy, where he led the development of the United States International Cyberspace and Digital Policy. Before coming to CFR, Segal was an arms control analyst for the China Project at the Union of Concerned Scientists. There, he wrote about missile defense, nuclear weapons, and Asian security issues. He has been a visiting scholar at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for International Studies, the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, and Tsinghua University in Beijing. He has taught at Vassar College and Columbia University. Segal is the author of Advantage: How American Innovation Can Overcome the Asian Challenge (W.W. Norton, 2011)
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Nazak Nikakhtar Portrait

The Honorable Nazak Nikakhtar

Partner and National Security Chair, Wiley Rein LLP
Former Assistant Secretary, U.S. Department of Commerce

The Honorable Nazak Nikakhtar brings over two decades of experience in international trade and national security to help clients succeed in the domestic and global marketplace. Through leadership roles in the U.S. government and private sector, Nazak has leveraged her valuable insights into the expansive range of U.S. and international laws, regulatory and policy processes, and federal agency resources to achieve clients’ business objectives. 

 

From 2018 to 2021, with unanimous confirmation by the U.S. Senate, Nazak served as the Department of Commerce’s Assistant Secretary for Industry & Analysis at the International Trade Administration (ITA). Nazak also served the duties of the Under Secretary for Industry and Security at Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS). In these roles, Nazak was the agency’s primary liaison with U.S. industry and trade associations, and she shaped major initiatives to strengthen U.S. industry competitiveness, promote innovation, and accelerate economic and job growth.

 

As one of the key national security experts in the U.S. government, she developed and implemented innovative laws, regulations, and policies to safeguard strategically important technologies, strengthen the U.S. industrial base, and protect the national security and foreign policy interests of the United States. As the Department’s lead on the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), she played a key role in shaping U.S. investment policy. As the head of the agency’s trade policy office, she advised the U.S. government on legal and economic issues impacting critical technologies, advanced manufacturing, financial services, e-commerce, data privacy, cybersecurity, critical minerals/rare earths, and energy competition. Finally, as the federal agency’s lead on supply chain assessments, Nazak spearheaded the United States’ first-ever whole-of-government initiative to evaluate and strengthen supply chains across all strategic sectors of the economy.

 

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R.P. Eddy

R.P. Eddy

CEO, Ergo

R.P. Eddy is the CEO of Ergo, a geopolitical and economic intelligence firm known for forecasting critical world events. Leaders of allied governments and the world’s most consequential global businesses rely on Ergo to navigate what the firm calls “The Fastest Year in History”—with each year faster still.

Previously, R.P. served as a Director at the White House National Security Council and as a senior U.S. and UN diplomat. He has represented the U.S. in peace negotiations, played a role in the (flawed) creation of the International Criminal Court, and led attempts to recover American hostages. He was an initial architect of the Global Fund, which has since been credited with saving over 50 million lives; the UN team was honored with a Nobel Peace Prize. Recognized by Foreign Policy magazine as one of “America’s most respected national security experts,” R.P. was also named a “Global Leader for Tomorrow” by the World Economic Forum.

R.P. co-authored the award-winning bestseller Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes (HarperCollins). His advocacy work spans leading counterterrorism programs for the NYPD and LAPD, promoting Western industrial competitiveness with DARPA, advocating for safe social media, and supporting the responsible development of AI. He has testified before Congress, spoken at the UN General Assembly and the Nobel Prize Summit, and is a member of both the Council on Foreign Relations and the Trilateral Commission.

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Christina Alfonso

Executive Director, CGCI

Christina Alfonso is a senior advisor to leaders across government and industry, specializing in national security, economic competitiveness, and emerging technology policy. As the Executive Director of the Council on Global Competition and Innovation (CGCI), she leads an initiative championed by the U.S. Department of War and private sector executives to advance resilient, market-driven security investments and foster strategic growth. As a Senior Advisor at DARPA, Christina prioritized developing public-private partnerships and advised on strategies to strengthen the U.S. defense innovation ecosystem.

Previously, as co-founder/CFO of Novata, a Microsoft and S&P-backed technology platform, Christina enhanced private market transparency through non-financial data reporting. As co-founder/CEO of Madeira Global (2012-2020), she pioneered values-based investment solutions for the private equity and credit sectors.

She is a graduate of the Harvard Kennedy School Senior Executives in National and International Security program. Christina holds an M.B.A. from ESADE Business School (Spain) and a B.S. in Finance and Economics from Fordham University. Christina is a trustee and treasurer of the RWJBH Monmouth Medical Center Foundation and has served on the advisory boards of the Milken Institute Young Leaders Circle, PathNorth, and the Women’s Society for the Economy and Society. She has extensive international experience, most recently in São Paulo, and is fluent in Spanish and Portuguese.