Quantum Computing: The Next Big Bet-If You Play It Smart

By Christina Alfonso, Executive Director, Council on Global Competition and Innovation – CGCI, and Zachary Yerushalmi, Co-Founder and CEO, Elevate Quantum

When Neil Armstrong planted the U.S. flag on the moon in 1969, it marked more than just a Cold War milestone—it was the triumphant climax of an era defined by science, ambition, and state-backed technological investment. The Space Race was much more than a symbolic victory—it was underpinned by a host of revolutionary technology advances: semiconductors, computers, telecommunications, and advanced materials that came to forge our contemporary civilization.

Today, we stand at the threshold of a transformation just as profound. But this time, the frontier isn’t space—it’s quantum. For investors, this technology revolution could similarly prove as compelling as any that came before…if you play it smart.

Quantum computing is a specific application of quantum principles. It is more than a ‘better’ computer—it fundamentally reimagines what a computer is. Classical machines, from ancient counting boards to modern supercomputers, operate through binary logic and sequential processing, methodically working through calculations one operation after another. Quantum computers, by contrast, exploit the probabilistic nature of quantum physics to navigate every possible solution simultaneously. This radical departure enables quantum systems to crack problems at speeds that would leave even our most powerful classical computers hopelessly behind.

The implications are staggering. Quantum computing’s revolutionary capabilities promise to reshape virtually every sector of human endeavor. Even setting aside the existential threat to modern cryptography—where quantum algorithms could shatter most of today’s key encryption standards—you’d be hard-pressed to find a clearer path to modeling and manipulating the atomic building blocks of the physical world.[1] From accelerating drug discovery and novel antivirals to unlocking energy-dense materials and grid-scale storage, quantum computers offer a shot at realizing a touch of the Jetsons in our own time. These new computers are estimated to unlock $3.5 trillion in value, somewhere on the scale of the life sciences and financial services sectors in our economy.

This transformation is no longer theoretical. As global powers race to harness quantum capabilities, the stakes extend beyond commercial opportunity to national security imperatives. Falling behind in quantum technology risks ceding strategic advantage to adversaries, making responsible investment not just prudent but essential for maintaining technological leadership and safeguarding our future.

With humanity on the cusp of our science-fiction future, the key question for sophisticated investors is how to support this industry and allocate capital toward this critical emerging technology—one recognized by organizations like the Council on Global Competition and Innovation (CGCI) as a pillar of future competitiveness—without falling victim to its hype cycle.

The ‘newness’ of the quantum industry makes the question hard to answer. Venture models built around software overlook the ‘physical’ reality and stage of the industry. Qubits – the building blocks of these quantum systems – are exquisite and still hamstrung by technical challenges before they can achieve full commercial scale. The semiconductor investment playbook is closer to quantum’s hardware roots. But semiconductors benefit from mature markets and decades of implementation experience. Quantum, by contrast, hasn’t settled on any commercially tractable architecture yet, with many nascent approaches—trapped-ion, photonics, superconductors—all still years from commercial scale. That maturity gap means both software and semiconductor analogues are the wrong frameworks for quantum investment right now.

Given these realities, investors looking for a more fitting roadmap might consider the biotech sector. Like quantum, biotech is defined by technical complexity, long development timelines, and the need for patient, diversified investment.

Applying the Biotech Playbook to Quantum Investing

Successful biotech investment strategies typically share three features:

  1. Portfolio construction. Smart investors usually avoid “betting the farm” on one exciting preclinical drug still five to ten years away from definitive trial results. Instead, they build a portfolio across modalities—small molecules, biologics, gene therapies—and across disease areas to balance risk and increase the chance of success on a portfolio basis.
  2. Alignment with payers and regulators. In biotech, programs like the Orphan Drug Act created incentives—market exclusivity, tax credits, reduced fees—for rare-disease therapies. Smart investors align closely to these regulatory programs to drive top returns.
  3. Mastery takes time. There’s no such thing as an effective crash course on biotech investing—it’s a game played by seasoned hands. It takes decades to develop the technical and commercial expertise needed to distinguish transformative platforms from hype.

Taken together, these lessons from biotech offer a more realistic and resilient framework for quantum investing. Instead of chasing a single moonshot, investors should build diversified portfolios across multiple hardware approaches and layers of the value chain—from enabling technologies like cryogenics and control systems to systems integrators and application developers. The goal isn’t to predict a lone winner but to position across the ecosystem where progress is likely to compound.

Equally important is aligning investments with customers willing to pay, including government agencies and global corporations that view quantum as a strategic asset. And just like biotech, quantum demands domain fluency and long-term orientation: success won’t come from generalist venture models alone, but from investors teamed with seasoned technologists and operational experts who understand the steep path to commercialization.

The upside, however, is immense—and already taking shape. Consider Lightsynq—a Harvard- and AWS-backed spinout acquired by IonQ for more than $400 million in stock just six months after its founding. Or Oxford Ionics, a UK company bought for $1.08 billion in a cash-and-stock deal that expanded and accelerated IonQ’s technology roadmap. These exits show that when companies deliver foundational technology advancement the market doesn’t wait for full commercial scale to reward progress.

Chasing returns, private and public capital is flowing fast. The Chinese government plans to invest over $15 billion in quantum technologies in the coming years. The U.S. strategy leverages public and private capital alongside regional initiatives like Elevate Quantum—a consortium of public and private players across the Mountain West working to accelerate commercialization and secure national leadership. Quantum’s potential is precisely why it remains one of eight priority technologies identified by the Council on Global Competition and Innovation (CGCI).

Quantum computing won’t follow traditional venture maps. It’s hardware-led, talent-intensive, and years from broad adoption. But that doesn’t mean it’s too early—it just means it requires the right lens: patient capital, technical credibility, diversified bets, and the humility not to treat today’s front-runners as final winners. If quantum lives up to even a fraction of its potential, it could reshape trillion-dollar sectors. But realizing that future—and earning a return along the way—demands more than optimism. It requires strategy, staying power, and an investor mindset sharp enough to spot signal through the quantum noise.

About the Authors

Christina Alfonso is the Executive Director of the Council on Global Competition and Innovation – CGCI.

Zachary Yerushalmi is the Co-Founder and CEO of Elevate Quantum—the first and only major place‑based investment the U.S. government has made in the quantum industry. Elevate Quantum is a federally recognized consortium backed by 140+ organizations, including Microsoft, AWS, Google, Sandia National Labs, Quantinuum, Atom Computing, Infleqtion, and more, working to accelerate commercialization and cement U.S. leadership in quantum.

Disclosure: Zachary Yerushalmi is an indirect shareholder of IonQ.

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Dr Benedetta Berti

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Dame Fiona Murray

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Dawn Meyerriecks

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Graham “Gray” Chynoweth

Founder, The Next Offset
Former Director of Global Activities, Office of Strategic Capital at the U.S. Department of War

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In parallel with his civilian career, Graham has served as a Naval officer, leading multiple innovation initiatives. He was Deputy Director of NavalX, the U.S. Navy’s innovation cell; Director of Global Technology Scouting and Co-Investments at the Office of Strategic Capital within the Office of the Secretary of War; and a technology scout with Task Force 59 under the U.S. Navy’s Central Command.

Graham, a New Hampshire native, is also deeply involved in civic and nonprofit work, having served as a Director or Advisor to organizations such as New Hampshire Public Radio, the St. Anselm College Ethics in Governance Program, and the Business School at Southern New Hampshire University.

He holds a B.A. in Political Science with High Distinction from the University of California, Berkeley; an M.A. in Public Policy from Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy; a J.D. from Duke University School of Law; and a Certificate in Transnational Law from Duke and the University of Geneva Faculty of Law.

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Jesús Mantas

Jesús Mantas

Former Global Managing Partner, IBM
Board Director, Biogen, IFF, and National Association of Corporate Directors (NACD)

Jesús Mantas is the former Global Managing Partner responsible for Business Transformation Services in IBM. Prior to this, he led IBM Business Consulting, IBM Global Process Services, and IBM GBS Latin America. Before IBM, he was a Partner in the High Technology practice of PricewaterhouseCoopers Consulting, and worked at Procter & Gamble in Spain.

He serves as the Chair of Compensation and Management Development of the Board of Director of Biogen Inc.(NASDAQ: BIIB), as well as a Board Director of IFF (NYSE: IFF) and NACD. He was a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global AI Council and serves on the Boards of HITEC and NACME, non-profits focused on leadership development of diversity in technology. He is the emeritus chair of IBM’s Hispanic Diversity Council.

Jesús holds degrees in Telecommunications, Software Engineering, and Business Administration, was a professor at University of California, Irvine Graduate School of Management, and served as an officer in the Air Force of Spain.

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Glen Dodson

Glen Dodson

Job Title, Cyberistics

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David Ulevitch Portrait2

David Ulevitch

General Partner, Andreessen Horowitz

David Ulevitch is an entrepreneur and investor. As a General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz, he leads the firm’s American Dynamism practice, which focuses on investing in companies advancing American interests — including supporting builders in areas such as defense, national security, public safety, nuclear and aerospace. David sits on the boards of Alloy Automation, Anduril, AnyRoad, Charthop, Firstbase, Flock Safety, Orderful, Rewatch, Skydio, Superhuman, Supermove, Vitally, and WorkBoard. David has written extensively on the role of technology in advancing American interests, including how nuclear technology can untether our military, the future of public safety and how the U.S. can rewire the Pentagon for a new era. David was previously the founder and CEO of OpenDNS, a cloud-delivered security service that was acquired by Cisco in 2015 for $635 million. While at Cisco, David was Senior Vice President and General Manager of Cisco Security — a $2.4 billion annual revenue business with more than 5,000 team members — where he oversaw the company’s global cybersecurity strategy, product portfolio, and business. Prior to OpenDNS, David founded EveryDNS, an authoritative DNS service, and grew it into the world’s largest free DNS service. He sold it to Dyn (now Oracle) in 2010.

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John M. B. O'Connor

John M. B. O’Connor

Chairman and CEO, J.H. Whitney Investment Management

John M. B. O’Connor is CEO of J.H. Whitney Investment Management, LLC. Previously, Mr. O’Connor was Chairman of JP Morgan Alternative Asset Management. Mr. O’Connor is also CEO of Whitney Strategic Services and Whitney Data Services. Mr. O’Connor serves on the Board of Directors of numerous companies including Oceus Networks, LLC., Sequoia Holdings, Inc., and Boon Logic, Inc.

Mr. O’Connor is a Senior Fellow at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point where he lectures on the Economics of National Security. He served as a member of the U.S. Department of War Business Board from 2005 to 2021 and as a Civilian Aide to the Secretary of the Army for New York from 2014 to 2019. He is a recipient of the Secretary of Defense Medal for Distinguished Public Service, the Air Force Distinguished Public Service Award and the Department of the Navy Distinguished Civilian Service Award. Mr. O’Connor earned a bachelor’s degree in economics from Tulane University and a Master’s in Business Administration degree from Columbia University Graduate School of Business.

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Sherif Nahas

Sherif Nahas

Director of Private Equity, Ford Foundation

Sherif works at The Ford Foundation, where he manages approximately $7 billion in private investments, including venture capital, private equity, real estate, and natural resources. He previously managed private investments for the University of Virginia endowment, and before that worked at BankBoston and Sand Hill Capital. Sherif started his career as an engineer and product strategist at The Ford Motor Company. He graduated from the University of Virginia with a B.S. and M.E in Aerospace Engineering, and received an M.B.A. from the University of Michigan.

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Byron Loflin

Byron Loflin

Global Head of Board Advisory & Nasdaq Center for Board Excellence, Nasdaq

Byron Loflin is the Global Head of Board Advisory at Nasdaq where he leads the governance team in driving board and governance effectiveness. Byron founded the Center for Board Excellence (CBE) in 2010 and was CEO until it was acquired by Nasdaq in 2019.

Prior to CBE, Byron was the CEO and president for two private companies between 1992-2009. Along with speaking on and teaching corporate governance effectiveness, Byron is a graduate of James Madison University (BA) and Harvard Business School (OPM) and several HBS Executive Education Certificates including Havard’s Board Effectiveness program.

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Gen. David Stilwell

General David Stilwell

Ret. General USAF; Fmr Assistant Secretary of State (Asia)

Brig Gen (Ret) David Stilwell is the Fox Fellow for Future Pacing Threats at the U.S. Air Force Academy’s Institute for Future Conflict. In this role, he educates cadets and faculty on the growing military threat presented by the People’s Republic of China (PRC), including its use of political and information warfare to undermine democracies. His teachings help prepare future officers for the challenges they will face immediately after commissioning. Stilwell most recently served as the Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of EastAsian and Pacific Affairs from 2019 to 2021. Before that, he served in the U.S.Air Force for 35 years. Stilwell enlisted as a Korean linguist in 1980, served as a fighter pilot and commander for 25 years, and was later the Defense Attaché in Beijing. He retired in 2015 as the Asia advisor to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He speaks Korean, Chinese, and some Japanese.
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Adam Segal

Ira A. Lipman Chair in Emerging Technologies and National Security, and Director of the Digital and Cyberspace Policy program, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Adam Segal is the Ira A. Lipman chair in emerging technologies and national security and director of the Digital and Cyberspace Policy program at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). An expert on security issues, technology development, and Chinese domestic and foreign policy, Segal was the project director for the CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force reports Confronting Reality in Cyberspace, Innovation and National Security, Defending an Open, Global, Secure, and Resilient Internet, and Chinese Military Power. His book The Hacked World Order: How Nations Fight, Trade, Maneuver, and Manipulate in the Digital Age (PublicAffairs, 2016) describes the increasingly contentious geopolitics of cyberspace. His work has appeared in the Financial Times, the New York Times, Foreign Policy, the Wall Street Journal, and Foreign Affairs, among others. From April 2023 to June 2024, Segal was a senior advisor in the State Department’s Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy, where he led the development of the United States International Cyberspace and Digital Policy. Before coming to CFR, Segal was an arms control analyst for the China Project at the Union of Concerned Scientists. There, he wrote about missile defense, nuclear weapons, and Asian security issues. He has been a visiting scholar at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for International Studies, the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, and Tsinghua University in Beijing. He has taught at Vassar College and Columbia University. Segal is the author of Advantage: How American Innovation Can Overcome the Asian Challenge (W.W. Norton, 2011)
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Nazak Nikakhtar Portrait

The Honorable Nazak Nikakhtar

Partner and National Security Chair, Wiley Rein LLP
Former Assistant Secretary, U.S. Department of Commerce

The Honorable Nazak Nikakhtar brings over two decades of experience in international trade and national security to help clients succeed in the domestic and global marketplace. Through leadership roles in the U.S. government and private sector, Nazak has leveraged her valuable insights into the expansive range of U.S. and international laws, regulatory and policy processes, and federal agency resources to achieve clients’ business objectives. 

 

From 2018 to 2021, with unanimous confirmation by the U.S. Senate, Nazak served as the Department of Commerce’s Assistant Secretary for Industry & Analysis at the International Trade Administration (ITA). Nazak also served the duties of the Under Secretary for Industry and Security at Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS). In these roles, Nazak was the agency’s primary liaison with U.S. industry and trade associations, and she shaped major initiatives to strengthen U.S. industry competitiveness, promote innovation, and accelerate economic and job growth.

 

As one of the key national security experts in the U.S. government, she developed and implemented innovative laws, regulations, and policies to safeguard strategically important technologies, strengthen the U.S. industrial base, and protect the national security and foreign policy interests of the United States. As the Department’s lead on the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), she played a key role in shaping U.S. investment policy. As the head of the agency’s trade policy office, she advised the U.S. government on legal and economic issues impacting critical technologies, advanced manufacturing, financial services, e-commerce, data privacy, cybersecurity, critical minerals/rare earths, and energy competition. Finally, as the federal agency’s lead on supply chain assessments, Nazak spearheaded the United States’ first-ever whole-of-government initiative to evaluate and strengthen supply chains across all strategic sectors of the economy.

 

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R.P. Eddy

R.P. Eddy

CEO, Ergo

R.P. Eddy is the CEO of Ergo, a geopolitical and economic intelligence firm known for forecasting critical world events. Leaders of allied governments and the world’s most consequential global businesses rely on Ergo to navigate what the firm calls “The Fastest Year in History”—with each year faster still.

Previously, R.P. served as a Director at the White House National Security Council and as a senior U.S. and UN diplomat. He has represented the U.S. in peace negotiations, played a role in the (flawed) creation of the International Criminal Court, and led attempts to recover American hostages. He was an initial architect of the Global Fund, which has since been credited with saving over 50 million lives; the UN team was honored with a Nobel Peace Prize. Recognized by Foreign Policy magazine as one of “America’s most respected national security experts,” R.P. was also named a “Global Leader for Tomorrow” by the World Economic Forum.

R.P. co-authored the award-winning bestseller Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes (HarperCollins). His advocacy work spans leading counterterrorism programs for the NYPD and LAPD, promoting Western industrial competitiveness with DARPA, advocating for safe social media, and supporting the responsible development of AI. He has testified before Congress, spoken at the UN General Assembly and the Nobel Prize Summit, and is a member of both the Council on Foreign Relations and the Trilateral Commission.

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Christina Alfonso

Executive Director, CGCI

Christina Alfonso is a senior advisor to leaders across government and industry, specializing in national security, economic competitiveness, and emerging technology policy. As the Executive Director of the Council on Global Competition and Innovation (CGCI), she leads an initiative championed by the U.S. Department of War and private sector executives to advance resilient, market-driven security investments and foster strategic growth. As a Senior Advisor at DARPA, Christina prioritized developing public-private partnerships and advised on strategies to strengthen the U.S. defense innovation ecosystem.

Previously, as co-founder/CFO of Novata, a Microsoft and S&P-backed technology platform, Christina enhanced private market transparency through non-financial data reporting. As co-founder/CEO of Madeira Global (2012-2020), she pioneered values-based investment solutions for the private equity and credit sectors.

She is a graduate of the Harvard Kennedy School Senior Executives in National and International Security program. Christina holds an M.B.A. from ESADE Business School (Spain) and a B.S. in Finance and Economics from Fordham University. Christina is a trustee and treasurer of the RWJBH Monmouth Medical Center Foundation and has served on the advisory boards of the Milken Institute Young Leaders Circle, PathNorth, and the Women’s Society for the Economy and Society. She has extensive international experience, most recently in São Paulo, and is fluent in Spanish and Portuguese.