Navigating Geopolitical Volatility: Actionable Insights for Investors and Leaders

Author: R.P. Eddy CEO, Ergo and Council Member, Council on Global Competition and Innovation

Welcome to the fastest year in history. In a single quarter, markets now battle shocks—pandemics, wars, and supply-chain seizures—that once spanned decades. Volatility is the new baseline. Any organization not working to forecast the next jolt is volunteering to be its victim.

Here’s a test for your firm or one in which you may invest. What does the CEO hear when he or she asks the leader of each P&L function these questions:

  1. What global flashpoints could blindside us before next quarter-close?
  2. What signals are you watching to know when the risk turns real? Will we know before the headlines, or will our first alarm be a hole in the balance sheet?
  3. Do we have a rehearsed playbook or just good intentions?

Most companies stumble on question #1, mumble through #2, and fail #3 outright. Those that answer crisply are already winning market share—and pricing power. The future is susceptible to research in a way most institutions don’t yet recognize, and firms that decide to build foresight operations can pass this three-part test in under 90 days.

Lenin noted, “There are decades when nothing happens and weeks when decades happen.” Why now? What’s different?

  • “The Pre-War Era” Beijing is now a near-peer competitor to the United States across trade, finance, and global influence. Decoupling is accelerating, supply lines are fracturing, and both sides are openly girding for a war neither wants. Predictably, the intertwined economies of the United States and China are ripping apart in expensive and volatile ways.
  • AI Arms Race Machine intelligence compounds at a rate human intuition cannot track. The technical edge is metastasizing into diplomatic leverage and market dominance. It doesn’t matter if you or your CTO believe artificial general intelligence (AGI) is imminent—your smart competition is preparing for it, and every major government believes this “God-like technology” is the definitive tool of humanity’s future.
  • Great-Power Policy Gyrations Rapid, executive-level moves—tariffs, investment screens, outbound investment restrictions, industrial policy—now emanate from multiple major capitals. These snap decisions ripple through supply lines, elevate compliance costs, and compel counterparties to hedge against sudden rule shifts. Predictability, once anchored in a liberal order, has given way to episodic shocks, baking hesitancy and a volatility premium into nearly any deal.

The opportunity for the prepared is obvious.  The investment case is well recognized.

National security demands, techno-dominance, and capital markets now intertwine. As the Council on Global Competition and Innovation (CGCI) warns, “Market-led security investment is no longer optional; it is the price of technological sovereignty.”

But the gap is real: in 2007 the U.S. led in 60 of 64 critical technologies; today it leads in 7. China leads in 57. This shift is the result of the CCP’s coordinated national strategy and massive investment in areas like AI, semiconductors, and quantum computing. Smart capital recognizes the opportunity and is joining increased support from the U.S. and allied governments in the move toward resilience.  Sectors aligned with security outperformed the MSCI World by ~900 bps in 2024.

The approach pioneered by CGCI offers a standardized, investment methodology that surfaces undervalued assets poised to define the next order. The methodology aligns capital with the assets, technologies, and companies most vital for national security, economic resilience, and global stability.

Adopting a GCI (Global Competition and Innovation) lens means more than simply diversifying across sectors. It means deploying capital into eight critical domains, as defined by CGCI, where strategic investment can shape the future rules of global competition including:

  1. AI and Quantum Computing;
  2. Biotech and Biomanufacturing;
  3. Critical Minerals and Advanced Materials;
  4. Cybersecurity, Space, and Defense Technology;
  5. Energy Security;
  6. Food Security and Agricultural Technology;
  7. Advanced Manufacturing and Supply Chain Resilience;
  8. and Semiconductors and Microelectronics.


“The GCI Methodology is designed to move us from fragmented activity to coordinated, catalytic capital deployment— profitably,” says CGCI President, Christina Alfonso. “The stakes are global. The opportunity is generational. The tools are ready.”

The Corporate Imperative for foresight

The leaders with satisfying answers to the three questions above treat geopolitics the way bankers treat discounted cash flow—priced into every deal, every day. Political risk, supply choke-points, trade battles and export-control whiplash are just some of the new hard costs of doing business. Handled well, they flip from drag to driver: disciplined foresight programs turned sudden AI advances, material shortages from COVID, and even the invasion of Ukraine into advantage, while laggards booked write-downs and paid a volatility tax.

  1. Global Monitoring: Monitor the plausible futures of global flashpoints—big moves that will affect you. “Just the headlines” won’t do it anymore. Use probability-weighted scenarios, not punditry.
  2. Local Mapping: Map the plausible scenarios specific to your enterprise. Many will be global, some won’t. Again, use scenarios for storytelling and probabilities for rigor.
  3. Stress-Test: How bad is it really? Score asset or line exposure against each scenario (probability × impact).
  4. Prepare and Hedge: Identify inexpensive steps or hedges that cover multiple outcomes. Quantify value-at-risk and hidden upside. Pre-plan responses. You’ll know before the headlines, so have a play ready. Redeploy in hours, not weeks.
  5. Collect:Gather live Indicator & Warning (I&W) data and maintain a dashboard keyed to each scenario to trigger alerts before headlines or price moves.
  6. Measure: Provide the board a quarterly heat map tracking probabilities that are rising or falling; run a monthly pulse with operators to track risk drift—probabilities rising or falling.
  7. Build geopolitical muscle: Embed awareness from the board through the C-suite, through your unit heads, and into your high potentials; begin regular conversations about the geopolitical technological supercycle; share the heat maps. Bonus: Use these conversations to help reduce the anxiety of your team and their families.

Rule of thumb: Once the system is in place, your board should feel conviction on your path after just 30 minutes in this loop. In an era of rapid change, companies that embrace data-driven foresight and build robust strategies won’t just weather the storm—they’ll seize opportunity and set the pace for their industries.

Future-proofing isn’t about simply enduring turbulence—it’s about building your own weather forecast. Leaders who hard-wire geopolitical muscle into their organizations today will compete with sharper vision tomorrow—not just better luck.

 

The views and opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the individual contributors of the Council on Global Competition and Innovation, Inc. (“CGCI”) and are not the views of CGCI or its affiliates.

Certain information included herein has been sourced from third parties, including external organizations or entities mentioned in this publication. While such information is believed to be reliable, CGCI has not independently verified its accuracy or completeness and makes no representations or warranties regarding its reliability or suitability for any specific purpose.

This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, investment, or professional advice. Readers should consult their own advisors before making decisions based on the content herein. Any references to specific entities, securities, or digital assets are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute endorsements or recommendations.

This content is not intended to solicit investment or participation in any financial products or services. Past performance mentioned, if any, is not indicative of future results. CGCI disclaims any liability for actions taken based on this information.

Charts and graphs are illustrative and should not be relied upon for decision-making purposes. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. All content reflects information available as of the date of publication.

For further details, please refer to our Terms of Use policy at https://www.cgci.org/terms-of-use

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Five months of war have driven the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve to a 43-year low—while China has spent the past decade building its energy buffer.

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Omer Rafiq

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Dr Benedetta Berti

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Andrew J. Grotto

JD, MPA: William J. Perry International Security Fellow, Stanford University and Co-Director, Program on Geopolitics, Technology and Governance at the Stanford Cyber Policy Center.

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Dr. CHRISTOS A. MAKRIDIS

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Stephen Rubley

Fmr. President, Government Division, Thomson Reuters; CEO, TRSS LLC

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Senior Advisor, CGCI

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Philip Root

CTO, GRVTY
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Dame Fiona Murray

Associate Dean of Innovation, MIT
Chair, NATO Innovation Fund

Dame Fiona Murray is the Associate Dean of Innovation at the MIT School of Management and the William Porter (1967) Professor of Entrepreneurship. She is the Faculty Director of MIT’s Office of Innovation and also Faculty Director of The MIT Kuo Sharper Center for Prosperity and Entrepreneurship. Fiona is an associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. She received her BA ’89 and MA ‘90 from the University of Oxford in chemistry. She subsequently moved to the United States and earned an AM ’92 and PhD ’96 from Harvard University in applied sciences.

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Dawn Meyerriecks

Corporate Board Member, Advisor, Speaker, Technologist
Former Deputy Director of Science and Technology, CIA

As an independent director and board member, government and commercial technical powerhouse leader, Dawn brings more than 40 years’ experience pioneering new products and services and leading transformation for iconic brands around the world, including CIA, AOL, and U.S. DoW. She is a recognized expert in delivering entrepreneurial technical capabilities and processes to international markets, leveraging unparalleled stakeholder acumen into strategy, development, integration, and operations.

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From 2014-2021, Dawn led the iconic CIA Directorate of Science and Technology, directing the organization’s first restructure in their fabled 57-year history, defining and delivering global capabilities beyond state-of-the-art even in the midst of significant workforce societal and health concerns. Prior to this role, Dawn redefined technical oversight for the Intelligence Community while serving at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, with a topline of +60B, enabling on-time, on-budget delivery while returning 30% of her own budget and staff to mission.

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Dawn is a highly sought technical leadership speaker. She maintains a current TS/SCI clearance. Additionally, Dawn has been a Virginia Master Gardener Volunteer for the last 13 years, nurturing her local community. She lives in Virginia with her family.

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Graham “Gray” Chynoweth

Founder, The Next Offset
Former Director of Global Activities, Office of Strategic Capital at the U.S. Department of War

Graham Chynoweth’s career has seen him drive change and impact across the areas of innovation, finance, and national security.

As an operator, he has served as CEO and in executive leadership roles overseeing operations, engineering, finance, legal, and talent functions in companies ranging from early-stage startups to firms with over 450 employees. He has raised more than $100 million in capital across private and public markets for companies in internet infrastructure, software, hardware, and biotech. He has also served as CEO and Director of a NASDAQ-listed company and as a Director of a publicly traded commercial bank.

As an investor, Graham has backed more than 25 startups, led New Hampshire’s largest angel investor network, and served as a General Partner in a venture fund focused on early-stage companies in New Hampshire.

In parallel with his civilian career, Graham has served as a Naval officer, leading multiple innovation initiatives. He was Deputy Director of NavalX, the U.S. Navy’s innovation cell; Director of Global Technology Scouting and Co-Investments at the Office of Strategic Capital within the Office of the Secretary of War; and a technology scout with Task Force 59 under the U.S. Navy’s Central Command.

Graham, a New Hampshire native, is also deeply involved in civic and nonprofit work, having served as a Director or Advisor to organizations such as New Hampshire Public Radio, the St. Anselm College Ethics in Governance Program, and the Business School at Southern New Hampshire University.

He holds a B.A. in Political Science with High Distinction from the University of California, Berkeley; an M.A. in Public Policy from Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy; a J.D. from Duke University School of Law; and a Certificate in Transnational Law from Duke and the University of Geneva Faculty of Law.

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Jesús Mantas

Jesús Mantas

Former Global Managing Partner, IBM
Board Director, Biogen, IFF, and National Association of Corporate Directors (NACD)

Jesús Mantas is the former Global Managing Partner responsible for Business Transformation Services in IBM. Prior to this, he led IBM Business Consulting, IBM Global Process Services, and IBM GBS Latin America. Before IBM, he was a Partner in the High Technology practice of PricewaterhouseCoopers Consulting, and worked at Procter & Gamble in Spain.

He serves as the Chair of Compensation and Management Development of the Board of Director of Biogen Inc.(NASDAQ: BIIB), as well as a Board Director of IFF (NYSE: IFF) and NACD. He was a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global AI Council and serves on the Boards of HITEC and NACME, non-profits focused on leadership development of diversity in technology. He is the emeritus chair of IBM’s Hispanic Diversity Council.

Jesús holds degrees in Telecommunications, Software Engineering, and Business Administration, was a professor at University of California, Irvine Graduate School of Management, and served as an officer in the Air Force of Spain.

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Glen Dodson

Glen Dodson

Job Title, Cyberistics

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David Ulevitch Portrait2

David Ulevitch

General Partner, Andreessen Horowitz

David Ulevitch is an entrepreneur and investor. As a General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz, he leads the firm’s American Dynamism practice, which focuses on investing in companies advancing American interests — including supporting builders in areas such as defense, national security, public safety, nuclear and aerospace. David sits on the boards of Alloy Automation, Anduril, AnyRoad, Charthop, Firstbase, Flock Safety, Orderful, Rewatch, Skydio, Superhuman, Supermove, Vitally, and WorkBoard. David has written extensively on the role of technology in advancing American interests, including how nuclear technology can untether our military, the future of public safety and how the U.S. can rewire the Pentagon for a new era. David was previously the founder and CEO of OpenDNS, a cloud-delivered security service that was acquired by Cisco in 2015 for $635 million. While at Cisco, David was Senior Vice President and General Manager of Cisco Security — a $2.4 billion annual revenue business with more than 5,000 team members — where he oversaw the company’s global cybersecurity strategy, product portfolio, and business. Prior to OpenDNS, David founded EveryDNS, an authoritative DNS service, and grew it into the world’s largest free DNS service. He sold it to Dyn (now Oracle) in 2010.

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John M. B. O'Connor

John M. B. O’Connor

Chairman and CEO, J.H. Whitney Investment Management

John M. B. O’Connor is CEO of J.H. Whitney Investment Management, LLC. Previously, Mr. O’Connor was Chairman of JP Morgan Alternative Asset Management. Mr. O’Connor is also CEO of Whitney Strategic Services and Whitney Data Services. Mr. O’Connor serves on the Board of Directors of numerous companies including Oceus Networks, LLC., Sequoia Holdings, Inc., and Boon Logic, Inc.

Mr. O’Connor is a Senior Fellow at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point where he lectures on the Economics of National Security. He served as a member of the U.S. Department of War Business Board from 2005 to 2021 and as a Civilian Aide to the Secretary of the Army for New York from 2014 to 2019. He is a recipient of the Secretary of Defense Medal for Distinguished Public Service, the Air Force Distinguished Public Service Award and the Department of the Navy Distinguished Civilian Service Award. Mr. O’Connor earned a bachelor’s degree in economics from Tulane University and a Master’s in Business Administration degree from Columbia University Graduate School of Business.

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Sherif Nahas

Sherif Nahas

Director of Private Equity, Ford Foundation

Sherif works at The Ford Foundation, where he manages approximately $7 billion in private investments, including venture capital, private equity, real estate, and natural resources. He previously managed private investments for the University of Virginia endowment, and before that worked at BankBoston and Sand Hill Capital. Sherif started his career as an engineer and product strategist at The Ford Motor Company. He graduated from the University of Virginia with a B.S. and M.E in Aerospace Engineering, and received an M.B.A. from the University of Michigan.

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Byron Loflin

Byron Loflin

Global Head of Board Advisory & Nasdaq Center for Board Excellence, Nasdaq

Byron Loflin is the Global Head of Board Advisory at Nasdaq where he leads the governance team in driving board and governance effectiveness. Byron founded the Center for Board Excellence (CBE) in 2010 and was CEO until it was acquired by Nasdaq in 2019.

Prior to CBE, Byron was the CEO and president for two private companies between 1992-2009. Along with speaking on and teaching corporate governance effectiveness, Byron is a graduate of James Madison University (BA) and Harvard Business School (OPM) and several HBS Executive Education Certificates including Havard’s Board Effectiveness program.

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Gen. David Stilwell

General David Stilwell

Ret. General USAF; Fmr Assistant Secretary of State (Asia)

Brig Gen (Ret) David Stilwell is the Fox Fellow for Future Pacing Threats at the U.S. Air Force Academy’s Institute for Future Conflict. In this role, he educates cadets and faculty on the growing military threat presented by the People’s Republic of China (PRC), including its use of political and information warfare to undermine democracies. His teachings help prepare future officers for the challenges they will face immediately after commissioning. Stilwell most recently served as the Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of EastAsian and Pacific Affairs from 2019 to 2021. Before that, he served in the U.S.Air Force for 35 years. Stilwell enlisted as a Korean linguist in 1980, served as a fighter pilot and commander for 25 years, and was later the Defense Attaché in Beijing. He retired in 2015 as the Asia advisor to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He speaks Korean, Chinese, and some Japanese.
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Adam Segal

Ira A. Lipman Chair in Emerging Technologies and National Security, and Director of the Digital and Cyberspace Policy program, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Adam Segal is the Ira A. Lipman chair in emerging technologies and national security and director of the Digital and Cyberspace Policy program at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). An expert on security issues, technology development, and Chinese domestic and foreign policy, Segal was the project director for the CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force reports Confronting Reality in Cyberspace, Innovation and National Security, Defending an Open, Global, Secure, and Resilient Internet, and Chinese Military Power. His book The Hacked World Order: How Nations Fight, Trade, Maneuver, and Manipulate in the Digital Age (PublicAffairs, 2016) describes the increasingly contentious geopolitics of cyberspace. His work has appeared in the Financial Times, the New York Times, Foreign Policy, the Wall Street Journal, and Foreign Affairs, among others. From April 2023 to June 2024, Segal was a senior advisor in the State Department’s Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy, where he led the development of the United States International Cyberspace and Digital Policy. Before coming to CFR, Segal was an arms control analyst for the China Project at the Union of Concerned Scientists. There, he wrote about missile defense, nuclear weapons, and Asian security issues. He has been a visiting scholar at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for International Studies, the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, and Tsinghua University in Beijing. He has taught at Vassar College and Columbia University. Segal is the author of Advantage: How American Innovation Can Overcome the Asian Challenge (W.W. Norton, 2011)
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Nazak Nikakhtar Portrait

The Honorable Nazak Nikakhtar

Partner and National Security Chair, Wiley Rein LLP
Former Assistant Secretary, U.S. Department of Commerce

The Honorable Nazak Nikakhtar brings over two decades of experience in international trade and national security to help clients succeed in the domestic and global marketplace. Through leadership roles in the U.S. government and private sector, Nazak has leveraged her valuable insights into the expansive range of U.S. and international laws, regulatory and policy processes, and federal agency resources to achieve clients’ business objectives. 

 

From 2018 to 2021, with unanimous confirmation by the U.S. Senate, Nazak served as the Department of Commerce’s Assistant Secretary for Industry & Analysis at the International Trade Administration (ITA). Nazak also served the duties of the Under Secretary for Industry and Security at Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS). In these roles, Nazak was the agency’s primary liaison with U.S. industry and trade associations, and she shaped major initiatives to strengthen U.S. industry competitiveness, promote innovation, and accelerate economic and job growth.

 

As one of the key national security experts in the U.S. government, she developed and implemented innovative laws, regulations, and policies to safeguard strategically important technologies, strengthen the U.S. industrial base, and protect the national security and foreign policy interests of the United States. As the Department’s lead on the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), she played a key role in shaping U.S. investment policy. As the head of the agency’s trade policy office, she advised the U.S. government on legal and economic issues impacting critical technologies, advanced manufacturing, financial services, e-commerce, data privacy, cybersecurity, critical minerals/rare earths, and energy competition. Finally, as the federal agency’s lead on supply chain assessments, Nazak spearheaded the United States’ first-ever whole-of-government initiative to evaluate and strengthen supply chains across all strategic sectors of the economy.

 

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R.P. Eddy

R.P. Eddy

CEO, Ergo

R.P. Eddy is the CEO of Ergo, a geopolitical and economic intelligence firm known for forecasting critical world events. Leaders of allied governments and the world’s most consequential global businesses rely on Ergo to navigate what the firm calls “The Fastest Year in History”—with each year faster still.

Previously, R.P. served as a Director at the White House National Security Council and as a senior U.S. and UN diplomat. He has represented the U.S. in peace negotiations, played a role in the (flawed) creation of the International Criminal Court, and led attempts to recover American hostages. He was an initial architect of the Global Fund, which has since been credited with saving over 50 million lives; the UN team was honored with a Nobel Peace Prize. Recognized by Foreign Policy magazine as one of “America’s most respected national security experts,” R.P. was also named a “Global Leader for Tomorrow” by the World Economic Forum.

R.P. co-authored the award-winning bestseller Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes (HarperCollins). His advocacy work spans leading counterterrorism programs for the NYPD and LAPD, promoting Western industrial competitiveness with DARPA, advocating for safe social media, and supporting the responsible development of AI. He has testified before Congress, spoken at the UN General Assembly and the Nobel Prize Summit, and is a member of both the Council on Foreign Relations and the Trilateral Commission.

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Christina Alfonso

Executive Director, CGCI

Christina Alfonso is a senior advisor to leaders across government and industry, specializing in national security, economic competitiveness, and emerging technology policy. As the Executive Director of the Council on Global Competition and Innovation (CGCI), she leads an initiative championed by the U.S. Department of War and private sector executives to advance resilient, market-driven security investments and foster strategic growth. As a Senior Advisor at DARPA, Christina prioritized developing public-private partnerships and advised on strategies to strengthen the U.S. defense innovation ecosystem.

Previously, as co-founder/CFO of Novata, a Microsoft and S&P-backed technology platform, Christina enhanced private market transparency through non-financial data reporting. As co-founder/CEO of Madeira Global (2012-2020), she pioneered values-based investment solutions for the private equity and credit sectors.

She is a graduate of the Harvard Kennedy School Senior Executives in National and International Security program. Christina holds an M.B.A. from ESADE Business School (Spain) and a B.S. in Finance and Economics from Fordham University. Christina is a trustee and treasurer of the RWJBH Monmouth Medical Center Foundation and has served on the advisory boards of the Milken Institute Young Leaders Circle, PathNorth, and the Women’s Society for the Economy and Society. She has extensive international experience, most recently in São Paulo, and is fluent in Spanish and Portuguese.